Four – that is the number of the current Formula 1 grid who have in the past inscribed their names upon the Monaco Grand Prix winners’ trophy, but the likelihood is that the spoils of success in the most glamorous race of them all will go the way of a different driver in 2009, as Jenson Button bids to make it five victories from six starts this season.

Both the British star and his Brawn GP team have been in imperious form throughout the current campaign, only once loosening their grip on the top spot – when Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber stormed through the spray to deliver Red Bull Racing an unheralded one-two in the rain-lashed Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai. That aberration aside, few have been able to touch Button this year, as the 29-year-old – who for so long toiled away in the lower reaches of the pecking order with uncompetitive machinery at his disposal – has established a handy 14-point lead in the title chase arriving in Monte Carlo this weekend.

What’s more, both he and team-mate Rubens Barrichello have ascended the rostrum in Monaco before – with second place in 2004 for the former and three runner-up spots and a third position in 16 starts for the latter – and team principal Ross Brawn predicts that the low-speed layout and winding, tortuous streets of the Principality will play to the strengths of the Mercedes-powered BGP 001. The opposition has been warned.

Brawn’s closest challengers thus far in 2009 have been Red Bull, with Vettel’s Chinese glory marking the energy drinks-backed squad’s maiden triumph in 74 races in the top flight. Though the Adrian Newey-designed, Renault-powered RB5 has not quite been on the Brawn’s ultimate pace for most of the year to-date, it is expected to be equipped for the first time this weekend with a ‘double-decker’ split-level diffuser – a device that could potentially be worth as much as half a second a lap. If the development pays dividends, Button and Brawn could suddenly find that the roles have been reversed.

On a similar topic, Ferrari seemed to overtake Toyota as F1’s third force in 2009 in Barcelona last time out, with Felipe Massa showing real pace inside the scarlet machine for the first time this season underneath the Spanish sun. As has all-too often been the case for the beleaguered Scuderia this year, however, the weekend was blighted by the disastrous error that saw the sister F60 of Kimi Raikkonen drop out of Q1 in qualifying and the pit-stop woes that caused Massa to concede two spots in the closing stages for fear of running out of fuel. The team that Luca di Montezemolo has accused of performing like a circus act and being the joke of the paddock may have an improved car, but well recognises that it needs to get its act together fast or else all hope of successfully defending its hard-fought constructors’ laurels from 2008 will be gone.

Toyota appeared to slip back to some extent around the Circuit de Catalunya, with a rather low-key qualifying performance by the Cologne-based outfit’s usual high standards in 2009, and by some margin its worst race-day showing of the campaign, as Jarno Trulli crashed out on the opening lap and Timo Glock could do no better than tenth at the chequered flag. The Italian is a former winner in Monaco, however, and his fabled one-lap speed will surely enable him to shine once again.

Behind the leading contenders, Williams, McLaren-Mercedes and Renault have all displayed flashes of potential over the opening five grands prix – but by the same token, all three have similarly shown flashes of distinct mediocrity. Williams has been dropping inexorably away from the front-running pace, McLaren suffered a dismal run in Barcelona – a circuit that, in stark contrast to Monaco, was always likely to expose the inherent weaknesses of the Woking-based concern’s aerodynamically-poor MP4-24 – and Renault has blown hot and cold in equal measure. In Nico Rosberg, 2008 Monaco winner and world champion Lewis Hamilton and double title-winner Fernando Alonso respectively, all three possess the necessary driving talent to fight at the front – the question is do they also possess the cars?

Three teams that for the moment assuredly do not possess race-winning or even podium-challenging machines are BMW-Sauber, Scuderia Toro Rosso and Force India. The former’s updates a fortnight ago failed to produce the desired effect of vaulting Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld significantly up the starting grid in Barcelona, whilst STR namesakes Sébastien Buemi and Sébastien Bourdais were unfortunate indeed to trip over each other just yards into the Spanish Grand Prix when they became two of the victims of the first lap chaos.

Force India veteran Giancarlo Fisichella, for his part, has invariably driven well in Monte Carlo and Adrian Sutil was on for a surprise fourth place last year before being unceremoniously removed from contention almost within sight of the chequered flag by Raikkonen’s out-of-control Ferrari exiting the tunnel. Surprises are often in-store in Monaco, but if none are forthcoming this year, then some drivers look set to face long afternoons indeed…

The Spanish Grand Prix has in recent years symbolised the beginning of the European leg of the Formula 1 campaign, but in 2009 it is likely to take on an even greater significance still, with most predicting that the weekend will reveal the true pecking order following the opening four flyaway races.

In Australia, Malaysia, China and Bahrain, three teams dominated proceedings at the front of the field – namely Brawn GP, Red Bull Racing and Toyota. Of those, only the first two have triumphed – Brawn courtesy of world championship leader Jenson Button in Melbourne, Sepang and Sakhir, and Red Bull storming to not only its breakthrough victory in the top flight after 74 starts but indeed its first one-two with Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber in the downpour of Shanghai.

Similar conditions are unlikely in Barcelona, but Brawn and RBR can nonetheless expect to once more be up at the business end of the grid, with few question marks over the capabilities of early-season team leaders Button and Vettel. By contrast, both Webber and Rubens Barrichello in the second of the Mercedes-powered BGP001s need to produce a strong performance on Spanish soil if they are not to risk finding themselves rapidly relegated into rear-gunner roles to their respective team-mates’ championship tussle.

Toyota, for their part, will be determined to avenge for a hugely frustrating Bahrain Grand Prix last time out, when after locking out the front row for the first time in its history, the big-budget Japanese manufacturer slipped away on race day as a result of a misguided strategy choice, with Jarno Trulli doing extremely well to hang onto the final rostrum position but Timo Glock managing to take the chequered flag no higher than seventh, having led the initial eleven laps. Toyota has the pace to win, the drivers to win and the money to win, but has yet to put all the pieces of the puzzle into place at the same time – could Barcelona finally put that unenviable record to bed?

Behind F1’s current top trio, Williams look in danger of sliding down the starting grid as better-financed rivals make inroads into their advantage, with any benefit afforded by the Grove-based former multiple world champions’ ‘double-decker’ diffuser now likely to be negated by upgrades from other teams. Williams has not made the most of its Toyota-powered FW31 package over the first four grands prix of 2009, and it knows it – the question now is to whether Sir Frank’s boys can maintain development pace to match their bigger and wealthier competitors.

Of those teams looking to steal a march this weekend, McLaren-Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault look to be the best-placed, with all three recognising that in the absence of a substantial step forward around the Circuit de Catalunya, their title chances may be shot. Double F1 World Champion Fernando Alonso in particular is desperate to shine in front of his partisan supporters, after lining up on the front row of the grid on home turf for the past three years in succession.

BMW-Sauber, too, has promised considerable gains under the Spanish sun, with the Bavarian outfit one of the undisputed disappointments thus far in 2009 – and Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica having come home respectively last and last-but-one in Sakhir. Improvements for the Munich and Hinwil-based concern need to be both significant – and swift.

It will be fascinating to see whether the sport’s traditional ‘grandees’ have done enough to redress the balance in Barcelona, whilst the remaining two contenders – Scuderia Toro Rosso and Force India – arguably have an even greater mountain to climb, with, rare exceptions apart, both having been glued firmly to the back of the pack for much of the season to-date.

Sébastien Buemi has shown well for the Red Bull ‘junior’ outfit and team-mate and namesake Sébastien Bourdais belatedly seemed to kick his challenge into gear in Bahrain, but still the small Faenza-based squad is struggling to make its STR4 perform to anything like the same standard as its big brother, the Red Bull Racing RB5. Force India, finally, have pointed to progress at each race so far in 2009 – the only trouble for the Silverstone-based minnows, is that everybody else seems to be progressing just as fast…

They’ve proved they can do it in the wet; now can they do it in the dry as well? That is the question on everybody’s lips in the Formula 1 paddock heading towards the Bahrain Grand Prix this weekend, as Red Bull Racing strives to prove its crushing Chinese success was no flash in the pan.

In sweeping both the opposition and the elements aside to prevail in Shanghai last weekend, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber sent out a firm signal that whilst they may not need a ‘double-decker’ diffuser to triumph, when they do eventually get their hands on one they may just be unstoppable. The interest arises, however, from Brawn GP’s conviction that had the heavens not opened then it would instead have been the third consecutive victory for the ex-Honda F1 concern, rather than its energy drinks-backed rival’s breakthrough glory.

There seems little doubt that Red Bull and Brawn are the teams of the moment in F1 in 2009, having shared the top step of the podium between them over the opening three races of the campaign and seeming to have the legs of everybody else in the field. On balance – and until RBR does roll out its split-level diffuser – you would have to say that Brawn remain the favourites to win in Sakhir, but it may be a close thing. Red Bull certainly took a step forward in Shanghai, and in Vettel and the rejuvenated Webber they have a driver pairing every bit as potent as that of world championship leader Jenson Button and experienced Brazilian Rubens Barrichello at Brackley. One thing is for sure – if they do steal Brawn’s thunder again, then Red Bull will be striking fear into the hearts of every one of their competitors.

Having similarly begun the season with a double-decker, Toyota and particularly Williams have still to make optimum use of it, and with the other teams rapidly playing catch-up in the development of their own, time is fast running out. Both squads endured a miserable outing in China, with Nico Rosberg again demonstrating strong pace only to run out of luck when it mattered the most on race day, and Jarno Trulli being rear-ended in spectacular fashion by Robert Kubica, the Pole’s BMW-Sauber travelling distinctly quicker than the Italian’s TF109. Rosberg and Williams, certainly, are overdue a change of luck, and Toyota are well aware of the need to make hay while the sun continues to shine or else risk kissing goodbye once again to their hopes of breaking their grand prix duck this year.

The two teams that arguably took the biggest step forward in Shanghai, by contrast, were Renault and McLaren-Mercedes, with Fernando Alonso’s storming run to the front row of the grid in qualifying for the former – admittedly on low fuel – the undoubted highlight. The Spaniard was undone on race day by a misguided strategy choice, and he reckoned afterwards that the rain had disguised the true potential of the Régie’s updated R29 – the first of the ‘non-diffuser’ seven to trial out a split-level version. Whether Renault has made as much progress as the double F1 World Champion believes will likely be more apparent this weekend, when precipitation assuredly will not be an issue.

McLaren, for their part, racked up their first double points-scoring finish of 2009 in China with fifth spot for Heikki Kovalainen and sixth for team-mate Lewis Hamilton, and the Woking-based outfit is clearly hoping for more of the same – if not a touch better – this weekend. Expectations may not be quite so high, however, at chief adversaries Ferrari and BMW. The Scuderia remains all at sea, with precious little performance seemingly able to be extracted from its F60, costly reliability woes on the rare occasions when pace is in evidence – as Felipe Massa found out to his great chagrin last weekend – and, should nul points again be the outcome in Bahrain, the scarlet boys’ worst start to a campaign in history. BMW, too, are struggling – KERS or no KERS – with fears that Kubica’s Q1 exit in Shanghai may be the hallmark of a season that goes on to fall far, far short of the title goal. Ferrari and BMW were two of just three teams – the other being Toyota – to conduct any winter running in the desert kingdom. It will be interesting to see if it hands them a boost this weekend.

That leaves, finally, Scuderia Toro Rosso – for whom astonishing rookie Sébastien Buemi performed quite brilliantly in the Chinese Grand Prix, fully meriting the point that ultimately came his way – and Force India. The former finally seems to be making some inroads in 2009, with its young Swiss charge in particular turning a number of heads, whilst its Silverstone-based rival will simply be hoping that the moment when Adrian Sutil abruptly exited the scene stage-left in Shanghai barely a handful of laps from the chequered flag did not mark its one and only chance of points this year washed away in the downpour…

He may have ultimately inherited a podium position in the 2009 curtain-raising Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne at the weekend – following Jarno Trulli’s controversial post-race penalty – but Lewis Hamilton has warned his and McLaren-Mercedes’ fans that he expects to be ‘further from the front-runners’ in the forthcoming Malaysian Grand Prix in Sepang.

Having started the race from 18th Down Under, a combination of some aggressive early overtaking moves, good fortune and a determination never to say die enabled the reigning Formula 1 World Champion to fight his way up the order into what would subsequently become the final place on the rostrum – even if he did not get the pleasure of standing on it. It was nonetheless, he acknowledged, a superb result under the circumstances.

“We did the best job we could,” the 24-year-old underlined. “I think it was an incredible job done by the team throughout the whole weekend. They’ve all kept their spirits up, even though we’re off the pace. We stick together and we keep our heads up and keep going – I think that just shows the true spirit of the team, so I’m very, very proud and I’m very happy with those points, definitely.

“Since we’ve come here we’ve not really improved the car as such; we’ve made some set-up changes, but the car is what it is at the moment. We’ve got a lot of work going on back at the factory, so hopefully step-by-step we’ll continue to score points and catch people up.”

Indeed, the MP4-24 has struggled for pace since birth, but if Hamilton and team-mate Heikki Kovalainen’s qualifying positions around Albert Park were much as could have been expected, the British star’s race day charge seemed to suggest that all hope is not yet lost for the remainder of the campaign – even if he has little confidence of a similar result in Malaysia in six days’ time.

“We shouldn’t get carried away by our podium in Australia,” the nine-time grand prix-winner insisted. “Yes, we had a fantastic race, but we’re all aware that our car isn’t capable of repeating that sort of performance on sheer pace alone. Sepang is one of the tougher tracks on the calendar, one where we will probably be further from the front-runners than we were in Albert Park.

“The track is both fast and technical, so requires good mechanical and aero grip. It’s much more aero-dependent and rear-limited than Melbourne so it may highlight some of the shortcomings of the MP4-24. Nevertheless, we’re all really encouraged by the progress we’ve made and I know we’ll be pushing as hard as ever to put more points on the board in Sepang.”

Those thoughts were broadly corroborated by both McLaren team principal Martin Whitmarsh and Mercedes-Benz Motorsport Vice-President Norbert Haug. The Woking-based outfit has triumphed twice in Malaysia compared to Ferrari’s five successes in the Far Eastern country, but it does not anticipate even coming close to adding to that tally in the 2009 edition.

“Lewis did a great job in the circumstances and so did the team,” Whitmarsh acknowledged of McLaren’s Melbourne performance. “It was a solid result and a great team effort with a car that’s not really quick enough and didn’t deserve to win those points – though obviously it relied on a bit on attrition.

“At the end under the safety car [Jarno] Trulli fell off onto the grass, and Lewis had no choice but to go past him because he wasn’t on the racing circuit. Trulli then re-took the place under the safety car, which ordinarily you wouldn’t do.

“We’re ahead of Ferrari – our good friends there – so that’s a good start, but I think both Ferrari and ourselves need to regain our form and make sure we’re more competitive. I’m sure both teams will be working very hard in the coming races to make sure we’ve got a quicker car. We’re going to be scratching around for sure, hopefully improving the car but also just trying to race as well as we can to get as many points in these early races until we can make our car truly competitive.”

“With Lewis in third place, the season-opener in Melbourne ended much better for us than we had expected after his 18th grid position,” agreed Haug. “Compared to our test results in Barcelona two-and-a-half weeks ago, we made a good step.

“This result was mainly due to Lewis’ perfect drive and a good strategy by our team. Moreover, some of the incidents in the race went in our favour. However, we cannot expect the same again this coming weekend in Malaysia. We all will work flat-out to improve our technical package further – that’s a promise.”